Idea of Gaslight said:
Goku loses. SSJ2 isn't a very draining form and I don't think he can last whatever amount of time Kefla can have of the hour she normally would if his punches are too weak to noticeably damage her, and his reactions aren't automatic as they are in UI.
I would put them as equals in strength personally. Unmastered UI Goku's punches were messed up since they were half conscious/half unsconscious when they should've been fully unconscious. Base Goku with UI's power will at least have fully conscious punches though less accurate/precise so a little more powerful i'd say. Mastered UI Goku's Fully Unconscious punches would be even better than that.
UI Goku's reactions/automatic movement also gave Goku the appearance of having a much greater speed advantage however it was just that there was no delay between his thoughts and actions so for someone who is just as fast as him they seem slower in comparison due to having that delay.
I think they could have a fairly equal/even brawl or beam clash with it being a toss-up who would win out for either of those.
If she resorts to her Aura Laser Barrage though he's completely done for since even with UI's automatic reactions Goku was grazed by a few lasers, and Roshi stated Goku would die if any of them landed on him.
She's much more likely to start off with the Aura Laser Barrage in Scenario 2 so i'd have her win that scenario a solid majority of times and for Scenario 1 i'd give her a slight majority since he at least has a chance to beat her before she resorts to that Aura Laser Barrage if he plays his cards right.