Anime-wise, Vegeta wins. Goku's next episode narration would imply Vegeta was stronger as he wasn't sure who'd win as opposed to knowing fusion wouldn't work on Boris, not to mention Beerus needing to power up to beat this Vegeta. I highly doubt Goku's estimations were of Beerus' unseen full power or they were anywhere near as great as he imagined, considering God Ki tier blew his expectations completely out of the water.
Manga-wise, you could have Vegetto winning seeing as how the power of Rageta is nowhere near as pronounced and he wouldn't necessarily need to be much stronger than Ultimate Gohan, though I find the lack of significant evidence to not be as necessary in rating him different as contradictive evidence between media would.