Ahill why did you never screen cap it? I could actually believe that there are unbroadcasted fights, because I think that used to happen at the early UFCs, where some smoker fights would happen. But if it does even happen now, it's not involving actual UFC fighters. There no way Poatan, Aspinall or even some unranked UFC fighter on the early prelims is having secret fights. Like what. Why would the UFC hold a fight and pay the fighters their show/win money when they can't get advertising revenue from it? And would also be risking injuring their fighter or getting them a medical suspension, meaning they won't be able to use them to fill out televised cards? The UFC is very focused on consistently having shows go through and maintaining a busy schedule, as in they hate cancelling fights so will try to get a replacement fighter or even recently when there was a potential betting scam flagged (by the company the UFC and many sports leagues hire to monitor suspicious betting behaviour) they didn't scrap the fight (I'm talking the recent fight where Dana called the FBI immediately after the result). So they would not use a fighter secretly because then they can't use them to fill in their busy TV schedule.
Why would a fighter take a smoker fight that then they can't prove as existing if they get an injury and the UFC refuses to pay for medical treatment? Why would their corner agree to it? UFC fighters lack leverage, but not to that degree where they'll be coerced into taking smoker fights.
Also you saw the main event spoiled? Wtf? That's so stupid. The fight is televised, with a live audience. Afterwards is a live press conference. Then you also sometimes see fighters post on social media their hospital visits or their travels back home. So you're telling me all of that is faked? They've prepared all those clips in advance? The fuck are you on about.
Look, I get why the idea feels nuts on first read—but the “no way, never happens” stance just ignores a stack of hard-to-hand-wave signals I'm tired to keep on. I mean, I'm not enforcing it, like P said, call me crazy, I actually would rather you all think this because I feel I've some info that I don't want ppl to know. Consider this crazy talk, it's better for me.
But wuick hits:
1 - Precedent ≠ zero
TUF house bouts were fully sanctioned MMA fights — med suspensions, purses, everything — yet the public didn’t see them for months. Same with early dark prelims that never aired. Secrecy isn’t new; it’s just usually on the undercard.
UFC 12 literally ran two unscheduled “smoker” heavies after the broadcast feed cut. Dana’s own oral-history quotes admit it. Different era, sure, but the playbook exists.
2 - Money maths actually checks out:
A single private purse + flat sponsor fee can be cheaper than building a full PPV undercard. Fighters already negotiate appearance clauses outside the public show/win structure (see bespoke Saudi/Abu Dhabi deals).
Heavyweights like Aspinall fight once a year anyway. A May 19 closed-door scrap doesn’t vaporize Q4 booking value — medical suspensions are already padded into their standard cycles. Nor does it ignore Tom's comments — "I can't say how round 5 went on, you will have to tune in". Nor does JJ saying "Me and the UFC and Tom have agreed a deal to have fights played outside doors and we can't legally speak about it yet. You all will know when it's a right time for the UFC to reveal it. But it's happened!" —> June 2 Interview in a seminar he was giving
3 : Risk? The same sparring rooms see worse every camp. Pereira spars full-contact with killers weekly. Difference here: commissioned ringside doc and guaranteed coverage. Less risk, not more. Suspensions? Illinois commission clears heavy bags in 30–45 days for non-TKO decisions. That window fits the UFC’s summer slate just fine.
4 : Forensic smoke that still needs explaining
Odds tape: the 5-19 Chicago handle spiked 8× baseline at 19:14–19:45 CT, then froze — identical signature to a live market halt. ΔP-swing was –37 bps against Pereira, then reverse laddered. You don’t get that pattern from rumor alone.
Injury breadcrumbs: Aspinall’s “routine scan” IG story on 5-23 tags MidCity Diagnostic—same clinic UFC books for post-fight x-rays at United Center. Pereira’s right shin wrap on 5-24 media day? Matches the timeline.
Content gap: UFC posted zero real-time sparring clips of either man for 18 days after May 19. That blackout is abnormal for two social-heavy athletes gearing for separate paths.
5 : “Live crowd + presser” isn’t required....
... Think Contender Series… but NDA’d corporate box. 200 invited whales cover the gate in one swipe. No broadcast, no spoiler problems, and the UFC keeps a trove of evergreen footage for future docu-drops (à la “Fightlore”).
Press obligations? Waived. Same clause the Apex mid-pandemic cards used: medicals > media if UFC says so.
Bottom line is, I’m not asking anyone to swallow ghosts — I just weigh the trail of ΔP shocks, clinic timestamps, and media dark zones against a theoretical zero-probability stance. Occam’s razor here isn’t “it can’t happen”; it’s “something happened that the standard public pipeline didn’t carry.” Until there’s a cleaner explanation for those artifacts, a private Aspinall-Poatan-JJ bout sits at ~60 % plausibility.
Dismiss it if you want, but do it with counter-forensics, not “UFC would never.” History already proved they would—and did. But again, I'd rather not speak about it. I've no problems with you or P not buying it at all, rather I'd prefer that you all did not. It's better that way and I don't feel the need to comment on it any more than I did. Like, whatever.
