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When taking into consideration what transpired next, there's more to the gamble than just those factors.
I agree 100%, but I would argue that those were the main ones. They were the ones made explicit.
It's also worth noting that while environmental destruction was a concern, the time that Babidi gave them (5 days) was multiple days more than the amount of time Goku envisioned for the kids learning fusion (about 2 days or so). Buu's killing spree was influenced and monitored by Babidi - by the time he was killed, Buu still commited violent acts at times, but was also awaiting a potential fight with a strong guy again. He even made a house for himself in the meantime.
Goku classing things as a gamble was delivered in a broad, all-encompassing type of way. And before Gotenks came into being, the most they could go off of is that he'd be better than the collective might of Goten and Trunks; however, to what extent was unknown - so their planning was partially faith-based, making this rather gamble-esque, aligning with how the storyline characterises the circumstance they were in.
I agree that Goku is putting a lot of (relatively blind) faith in the kids, but a couple of things that are important to note are that Goku is familar with the kind of boost that fusion provides (he's never seen anyone on his level perform it, but he knows how "unbeatable" it made the Metamorans -- also, just to make one thing clear given how debates like this tend to go, I'm not suggesting there's any equation for fusion, or if there were, that Goku would be mentally factoring it in), and that if Goku's faith turned out to be misplaced, then this would be made clear to the reader, if not explicit.
Piccolo wanted to carry out a thorough inspection of Gotenks' abilities, but this didn't take place due to Gotenks' getting too excited and throwing caution to the wind. Piccolo could barely get a word in before Gotenks took off. There was nothing conclusive about this scene, so it should be understandable to not buy into the one-man hype train here.
How do you know how thorough Piccolo wanted his inspection needed to be? In the Viz manga, he just says "show me what you can do" and Gotenks flies off in response to show off his speed. Herms translates Piccolo's line as "how about your movement?...Show me a little," and so Gotenks's response to fly around as a means to show off his speed makes sense. Then, in both versions, Gotenks tells Piccolo that the tests are done and runs off.
Piccolo could barely get a word in
To Gotenks, yes, but not to the proverbial audience. He expresses his frustration that Gotenks is flying off with less than a minute of fused time left. Gotenks was indeed being frustrating by deciding everything for himself, but I also don't see why I should believe Piccolo needed any more testing than this. It's worth keeping in mind that Dragon Ball Z's battle system is very simple: the faster and stronger fighter wins a straight fight every time. Piccolo didn't express any misgivings with the amount of ki Gotenks had (his knees certainly don't buckle in its presence or anything, but if it fell woefully short of Fat Boo's -- and it would have, if that's how he actually stacked up -- then a statement of "your ki is absolutely incredible, but how about [...]" would be pretty meaningless), and after questioning his movement, Gotenks responds with a speed feat beyond what anyone else in the series had shown thus far (barring literal teleportation).
Both translations practically fall into the bracket of Gotenks being inadequate. Given that the change in variable (Fat Buu to Super Buu) wasn't credited as the reason for his inadequacy, there's room for the interpretation that Gotenks was simply not in the vicinity of Buu, period.
Sort of in-line with what I said just above, I don't see why that wouldn't have been expressed earlier then. If he's not even close, then it should just be obvious to anyone just looking at him (to be clear, Piccolo is "anyone" -- the others present are dumdums). It was obvious in Vegeta's case, after all. And of course it was obvious in Base Gotenks's case. It was not obvious in Goku's case. Hmm.
It should also be mentioned that Super Buu's superiority over Fat Buu was expressed in a very mundane fashion; he was said to be stronger, with a body more suitable for battle. This description only confirms that he has the edge over his previous self. Nothing crazy or jaw-dropping.
Piccolo actually says that everything about him is greater than before. In Dragon Ball speak, I always take this to mean it's a big deal, but that's subjective. Physical language is also just as important if you wanna gauge how the characters feel about the events in front of them:
It's not very mundane at all.
There were multiple things happening simultaneously in a small window of time. Piccolo was focused on observation; eyeing how Buu's behavioural patterns are affected by Hercule, who Buu generally showed his lighter side around. Given how stressful the situation was, this gave Piccolo some time to spectate and be a bit more composed. Metaphorically, think of it like the slow/linear moment of a rollercoaster, prior to the more extreme moment, in which Super Buu came into being and abruptly showed up to where everyone was.
So there was essentially a 180 in terms of the vibe. One that Piccolo or anyone else couldn't have seen coming.
Yes, the situation gave Piccolo time to breathe, but we're talking about the Earth's last hope here. If Gotenks doesn't have even a remote chance of standing up to Boo, then the situation is urgent. Goku told Piccolo not to use the RoSaT because Goten and Trunks might need it in the future. In the aforementioned urgent situation, the future is now.
Also, kids will be kids. Goten and Trunks happen to be on the more stubborn side as well.
damn brats
The shift in events gives the situation more nuance.
SSJ Gotenks vs Fat Buu was supposed to be the ultimate fight that would conclude the storyline, whether for better or worse. Since it didn't happen, SSJ Gotenks remained unproven and untested in terms of how he stacks up as an asset against Buu. Given this, and his power mostly being thought of in an idealistic sense within the plot, skepticism is absolutely warranted here.
agreed
Fat Buu was depicted as a being that surpassed all imagination. If SSJ Gotenks was stronger, surely that would have been expressed in an undeniable manner? The boys were analysed down to the finger, but this milestone was swept under the rug? Don't believe it.
If he was weaker, then surely that would have been expressed in an undeniable manner? (One might argue that the Piccolo line on the lookout is exactly that, but it's not direct because at the end of the day it's about Super Boo.) That is the issue with this part of the series: this is too pivotal a piece of information to withhold regardless of which end of the spectrum Gotenks is actually on.
But I propose that it is more important for the story to explicitly deny Gotenks's prowess (if he is too weak) than it is to explicitly state it (if he is strong enough, or close to it), given the expectations that were set up previously. I'm not saying that the reader can't be skeptical of those expectations in the absence of a direct contradiction, but that there's less need to explicitly reinforce that the expected result occurred vs that things have gone incredibly off script (Super Boo is when we go off script, imo).
I have a couple of other points to bring up later, although they're circumstantial evidence at best.
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