First I'll present the 50% >>> warming up side of the coin:
First we have everyone's reactions towards Goku's power. Reactions aren't very telling, but it's still something pointing out towards 50% Goku's power:
Trunks probably didn't even know it was Goku, yet suddenly feeling such chi sure amazed him (still his reaction is showed within a panel). It also aggravated Vegeta's will into training another year in the RoSaT. You could also make a case for 50% Goku >>> Goku (Vegeta's estimations) >>> Vegeta, considering Goku already had told Vegeta he is far above him and yet Vegeta was impressed with said power.
It's also worthy note that Goku has an aura
initially, while he was powering up, although such was not showed when Karin begged him to stop (maybe Goku began to power down there? Dunno).
I remember the eyes argument was once brought up by Pakl, in which 50% Goku has clearly a "more serious eyes" than warm up Goku, whose eyes aren't so intense, albeit not so round as they were when Goku suddenly exited the RoSaT. For clarification:
~ 50% Goku
~ warm up Goku
~ resting state Goku
So we have three different types of eyes.
And now comes the most logical explanation: Goku pretty much told everyone that the power Cell used against Vegeta and Trunks wasn't his all. He says "Dunno how strong he might become when he is down to business", which clearly indicates Cell had yet a good deal of power to reveal. Vegeta also probably knew about that due to Cell stating he'd be a "only a tittle bit serious" now:
Chapter: 383 (DBZ 189), P12.4, P14.4
Context: after Vegeta tells perfect Cell to fight seriously
Cell: “Well, just a little bit then…”
*Vegeta kicks him, to no effect*
Cell: “Fuffuffuh…’Super Vegeta’, huh?...”
Then, when Goku shows his full power, everyone doesn't immeadiately realize he has more to show. If Cell (expected) is >>> warm up Cell and 50% Goku can possibly be his full power, then Goku 50% being = warm up isn't possible. Goku says he won't know until he tries, but "he probably doesn't have a chance". So I think the warriors were expecting Goku to be somewhat close to expected Cell.
Right, you could say Goku's line of "I probably can't win" can be seen under a "I dunno how strong Cell is, but if I had to make a guess, it would be..." and therefore the uncertainty from Goku comes from him not knowing how strong Cell would be, rather than them being close in power, but I have my own counter for that too :wink: